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Examoogle • User • info@examoogle.com • EE-2024-8821
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Extrapolation method is also known as
Error less
Deterministic
Curve fitter
None of above
Deterministic
Quick Summary: The extrapolation method is classified as a deterministic approach in load forecasting because it predicts future demand by assuming that established historical trends will continue into the future. It relies on mathematical models, such as time series analysis and regression, which generate unique outcomes based solely on input data without accounting for stochastic variables.
The extrapolation method is classified as a deterministic approach in load forecasting because it predicts future demand by assuming that established historical trends will continue into the future. It relies on mathematical models, such as time series analysis and regression, which generate unique outcomes based solely on input data without accounting for stochastic variables.
L(t)=a0+a1t+a2t2+… — Polynomial trend projection formula
Yt+1=f(Yt,Yt−1,…) — Auto-regressive model structure
The principle involves identifying the pattern of historical load data (like seasonal or long-term growth) and projecting this pattern forward using curve-fitting techniques. Since it follows a fixed mathematical relationship L(t)=f(t), it is inherently deterministic rather than probabilistic.
Extrapolation uses historical data exclusively to forecast future values.
It assumes the underlying causal forces remain constant over the forecast horizon.
It is a 'black box' method as it ignores the physical factors (like weather or economy) driving the load.
Categorized under deterministic models in power system planning.
Requires less data compared to causal/econometric models.
Computationally efficient and simple to implement for short-term forecasting.
Cannot account for sudden structural changes or unexpected events.
Error compounds significantly as the forecast horizon increases.
Short-term peak load forecasting.
Preliminary planning for distribution system expansion.
Deterministic methods differ from stochastic methods, which incorporate probability distributions to account for uncertainty in forecast variables.
Option C ('Curve fitter') is technically related to the mathematical tool used in extrapolation, but 'Deterministic' is the broader classification term preferred in power systems engineering literature.
B is correct — Extrapolation is termed deterministic because it maps historical data trends directly to future values using fixed mathematical functions.
In power systems exams, remember that any method ignoring exogenous variables (like temperature or GDP) in favor of internal time-series patterns is typically classified as a deterministic approach.